Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The U.S. dollar declines following a potential intervention in the Japanese yen.
• Dollar weakness provides temporary support to gold despite the broader downward trend.
• Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are reducing the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution.
• Oil continues its weekly gains, supported by supply disruptions.
• Growing expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period.
• Bitcoin shows a partial recovery following a recent wave of declines.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,593
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,626
• Targets: 4,658, then 4,693
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,585
• Targets: 4,551, then 4,518
• Note: The bearish trend remains in place, with continued failure to hold above key resistance levels.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Corrective bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 106.00
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 107.38
• Targets: 109.10, then 111.00
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 104.04
• Targets: 102.19, then 100.42
• Note: A corrective move is unfolding within a broader uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1740
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1749
• Targets: 1.1777, then 1.1812
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1717
• Targets: 1.1683, then 1.1650
• Note: The uptrend remains intact, with mild corrective pullbacks occurring within the broader bullish structure.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3616
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3628
• Targets: 1.3661, then 1.3697
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3578
• Targets: 1.3542, then 1.3508
• Note: Strong bullish momentum is evident following a breakout, though price is approaching a key resistance

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 27,466
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 27,555
• Targets: 27,635, then 27,723
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 27,389
• Targets: 27,303, then 27,221
• Note:Momentum is weakening after a strong upward move, with a higher likelihood of continued corrective action.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)– 16:45
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)– 17:00

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index hovered around the 98 level on Friday, following a sharp drop of roughly 1% in the prior session.
• The decline was driven by a notable strengthening of the Japanese yen amid suspected intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market.
• Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, the dollar weakened, underscoring the influence of monetary dynamics and direct market intervention on currency performance.
• Main factors contributing to the dollar’s decline:

• Possible Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market
• Signs of implicit coordination among G7 countries.
• Intensified selling pressure against the yen

• Despite its recent decline, the U.S. dollar continues to be supported by a broadly favorable macro backdrop, driven by:

• Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
• Persistently high energy prices
• Rising inflationary pressures

• Financial markets remain aligned with a hawkish policy trajectory, as evidenced by:

• Reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts
• Strengthening consensus that interest rates will stay elevated for an extended period
• The potential for further policy tightening if inflation persists

• These expectations are reinforced by the prolonged energy crisis and sustained global inflationary trends.
The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy
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• Gold:

• Gold prices held above the $4,600 per ounce level, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar.
• However, despite this support, gold remains in a downward trend on a weekly basis, on track to record its second consecutive weekly loss.
• This weakness is driven by several factors:

• Diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts
• Elevated inflation levels
• Rising bond yields
• Persistent market uncertainty

• Although gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, the prevailing higher-for-longer interest rate environment continues to limit its upside.

• Oil:

• Oil prices are on track to post strong weekly gains, with:

• Brent Crude trading near $112 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate hovering around $106 per barrel

• The rally is driven by several key factors:

• Ongoing maritime restrictions affecting Iranian oil flows
• The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz
• Declining global supply levels
• Increased demand for U.S. crude

• In addition, U.S. exports reaching record levels highlight the extent of the supply shortfall in global markets.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin recorded a modest rebound above the $76,500 level following a period of decline.
• This price action suggests:

• An attempt to regain upward momentum
• Temporary stabilization in market conditions
• Strong resistance emerging near the $76,750 level

• However, the market still requires a decisive breakout above resistance to confirm a sustained bullish trend.