Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The US dollar remains steady, underpinned by safe-haven flows.
• Rising tensions in the Middle East are putting the ceasefire at risk.
• Higher oil prices are rekindling inflationary pressures.
• Gold continues to show weakness despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
• Markets are reassessing the likelihood of additional interest rate increases.
• Bitcoin extends its rebound, surpassing key technical levels.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,538
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,557
• Targets: 4,589, then 4,624
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 4,516
• Targets: 4,481, then 4,449
• Note: Bullish pullback within a broader downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Sideways with a bearish bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 104.13
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 106.52
• Targets: 108.24, then 110.14
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 103.19
• Targets: 101.34, then 99.57
• Note: Range-bound price action with an overall negative bias.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1679
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1701
• Targets: 1.1729, then 1.1764
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 1.1669
• Targets: 1.1635, then 1.1602
• Note: The downtrend remains intact, with noticeable weakness in upward momentum.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3518
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3551
• Targets: 1.3584, then 1.3621
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 1.3501
• Targets: 1.3465, then 1.3432
• Note: Clear selling pressure persists, with continued formation of lower highs.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 27,726
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 27,782
• Targets: 27,862, then 27,950
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 27,615
• Targets: 27,530, then 27,447
• Note: The price is attempting to retest higher levels amid sustained positive momentum.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

• S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)– 16:45
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)– 17:00
• JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)– 17:00New Home Sales (Mar)– 17:00

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:\

• The Dollar Index hovered around the 98.5 level on Tuesday, holding on to its recent gains, supported by a renewed shift into safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• This support followed a resurgence in military confrontations between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, raising significant doubts about the durability of the four-week ceasefire.

Geopolitical Developments:

The region has witnessed a marked escalation, including:

• Direct clashes in the Strait of Hormuz
• Targeting of vessels and key maritime routes
• Missile strikes and drone attacks
• Damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf

These developments followed Donald Trump’s plan to reopen navigation through the Strait, though security risks remain elevated, prompting shipping companies to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
• This escalation has led to:

• Increased demand for the US dollar
• A rise in oil prices
• Intensifying inflationary concerns

• Monetary Policy and Outlook

Markets have begun to clearly reprice the expected policy path, with:

• Rising probabilities of further interest rate hikes
• Diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts
• Continued adherence to a hawkish policy stance

This shift is driven by:

• Elevated energy prices
• Mounting inflationary pressures
• Persistent geopolitical instability

• Investors are also closely watching the upcoming US labor market data, which is expected to show a moderation in employment growth—potentially influencing future policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.

• Gold:

• Gold prices stabilized near the $4,500 per ounce level, following declines in previous sessions.
• Although geopolitical tensions typically lend support to gold, the impact of the following factors has been more dominant:

• A stronger US dollar
• Rising bond yields
• Increasing expectations of further interest rate hikes
• Intensifying inflationary pressures

• Gold has fallen by approximately 15% since the onset of the conflict, reflecting its relatively weak performance in the current macroeconomic environment.

• Oil:

• Oil prices remained elevated, with:

• Brent crude trading near $113 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $104 per barrel

• This upward momentum is driven by:

• Military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz
• Disruptions to maritime shipping
• Concerns over supply shortages
• Continued closures of critical transit routes

• • The current backdrop suggests that prices are likely to remain elevated in the absence of a clear and lasting resolution.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin extended its upward trajectory, breaking above the $80,500 level, signaling an improvement in risk appetite.
• This move reflects:

• A return of bullish momentum
• Fresh liquidity entering the market
• A push toward higher targets near $81,200