Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The U.S. dollar holds above the 99 mark as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist.
• Investors remain focused on developments surrounding U.S.–Iran negotiations.
• Gold edges lower amid lingering inflationary pressures.
• Oil records slight gains despite ongoing bearish pressure on a weekly basis.
• Markets continue to factor in the likelihood of additional U.S. rate hikes before the end of the year.
• Bitcoin fluctuates near the $78,000 threshold as investors await further market catalysts.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Uptrend with a corrective pullback
• Timeframe: 30-minute chart
• Current price: 4,532
• Primary scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,554
• Targets: 4,586 then 4,621
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 4,512
• Targets: 4,478 then 4,446
• Note: Gold remains in a broader uptrend but is currently undergoing a corrective phase after failing to hold above the 4,580 resistance zone.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Downtrend
• Timeframe: 30-minute chart
• Current price: 91.57
• Primary scenario: Buy on a breakout above 93.37
• Targets: 95.09 then 96.99
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 90.04
• Targets: 88.19 then 86.42
• Note: Oil remains under selling pressure, though short-term corrective rebounds are emerging above the $90 level.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Sideways to slightly bullish
• Timeframe: 30-minute chart
• Current price: 1.1633
• Primary scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1650
• Targets: 1.1677 then 1.1713
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 1.1617
• Targets: 1.1583 then 1.1550
• Note: The euro is holding above the current support level, and a clear breakout above resistance could trigger a new upward move.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Uptrend
• Timeframe: 30-minute chart
• Current price: 1.3477
• Primary scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3513
• Targets: 1.3546 then 1.3582
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 1.3463
• Targets: 1.3427 then 1.3393
• Note: The pound is trading within a positive range, and holding above 1.3460 supports the continuation of the short-term upward bias.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Uptrend with a short-term corrective pullback
• Timeframe: 30-minute chart
• Current price: 29,751
• Primary scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,811
• Targets: 29,891 then 29,979
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 29,645
• Targets: 29,559 then 29,477
• Note: The Nasdaq remains in an overall uptrend, but is currently undergoing a corrective phase and profit-taking after the recent rally.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

• CB Consumer Confidence (May) – 17:00

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

The U.S. Dollar Index remained steady above the 99 threshold on Tuesday after coming under pressure at the start of the week, as investors continued to track geopolitical and military developments tied to Iran.
The dollar’s resilience was supported by continued market caution amid:

• U.S. military activity in southern Iran
• Continued diplomatic negotiations
• Persistent global inflation concerns
• Expectations that tight monetary policy will remain in place

❖ Geopolitical Developments

• According to reports, the U.S. military carried out strikes targeting missile launch facilities and vessels suspected of attempting to lay naval mines in southern Iran. U.S. Central Command stated that the operations were intended to safeguard American personnel and ensure the security of maritime routes in the region.
• Meanwhile, Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran are “moving in a positive direction,” while warning that further military action remains possible should the current talks fail.
• Reports also indicated that Washington and Tehran are discussing a potential framework that may include:

• A two-month extension of the ceasefire
• Temporary relief of U.S. sanctions
• The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
• The restoration of shipping and energy flows

• Additional reports suggested that Pakistani intermediaries informed China that an agreement may be nearing completion.

• Monetary Policy and Outlook

• Markets continue to anticipate that U.S. monetary policy will remain restrictive in the near term.
• Last week, the dollar climbed to its highest level in six weeks as investors began pricing in the possibility of additional interest rate hikes before year-end, driven by persistent inflationary pressures linked to energy prices.
• Although oil prices have eased recently, investors remain focused on upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, one of the Federal Reserve’s key inflation indicators.

• Gold:

Gold declined below $4,550 per ounce after surrendering part of the gains recorded in the previous session.
• The pressure on gold was driven by:

• A stable U.S. dollar
• Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty
• Persistent inflation concerns
• Expectations of higher interest rates for longer

• Despite the recent decline in oil prices, markets remain concerned that inflationary pressures could reemerge if negotiations falter or military tensions escalate again.

• Oil:

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, with:

• Brent crude holding near $98 per barrel
• WTI crude trading around $91 per barrel

• The uptick was driven by:

• Escalating military developments
• Persistent geopolitical tensions
• Continued concerns over the Strait of Hormuz

• Nevertheless, crude prices remain down more than 10% over the past week as investor optimism over a potential agreement continues to ease fears surrounding global energy supply disruptions.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin is trading near the $78,000 level amid a cautious market sentiment.
• The cryptocurrency may attempt to regain upward momentum if it manages to break above and hold this level.
• However, continued strength in the U.S. dollar and elevated U.S. bond yields could keep pressure on the digital asset market in the near term.